Monday, 18 May 2009

BUCSIS's Second Intelligence Conference takes place on 20 May 2009 at Bletchley Park

'Bletchley Park and British Intelligence: Confronting Security Challenges, Past and Present'  

 

20 May 2009

 

The conference aims to examine 

  • the impact that sigint had on the development of the British intelligence model (that is, the history of Bletchley),
  • the extent to which some of today's security challenges are being dealt with using modern versions of what it did in the past.
  • whether or not this is a 'good' thing in terms of British security and British society.

The conference, the second that BUCSIS is holding, will highlight the agreement of both Buckingham centre and Bletchley to work together to further teaching and research in intelligence history and policy.

Tickets to include lunch are £40.00 (these must be paid for by 18 May 2009); tickets without lunch are £20 (Bletchley Park has a cafe which serves snacks). Anyone wishing to come should email Anthony Glees (anthony.glees@buckingham.ac.uk) or Vicky Worpole (vworpole@bletchleypark.org.uk)

The morning will be devoted to the history of Bletchley Park (i.e. its contribution to the development of British intelligence).

 

The afternoon will be concerned with contemporary security challenges and whether Britain is becoming a 'surveillance' society -- not least because of Bletchley's successful legacy to British intelligence.

 

 

Morning Session 1000-1230

 

Welcome: Simon Greenish, Director/CEO Bletchley Park Trust; Professor Anthony Glees University of Buckingham

 

Morning Session: Bletchley Park and its Contribution to British Intelligence

 

1015 – 1230 Panel One (Chair Prof Anthony Glees)

 

1015 – 1045 Keynote: Sir Arthur Bonsall, KCMG CBE, former director GCHQ 1973-8 (accepted)

 

1045 -- 1100 Introductory Remark by Lord Carlile of Berriew QC

 

Quick break for coffee

 

1100 – 1130 Michael Herman (Nuffield College Oxford) ‘Reflections on Bletchley’s place in UK Intelligence: from the Second World War to the end of the Cold War’ (accepted)

 

1130 – 1200 Brian Oakley (Bletchley Park) ‘What went on at Bletchley? The work of the Huts’ (accepted)

 

1200 – 1230 Prof Chris Grey (Warwick University Business School) ‘How did the Organisation of Bletchley Park contribute to its success: or “a chaos that worked” (accepted)

 

1230 – 1300 Questions and Discussion Panel One

 

Lunch 1300-1400

 

Afternoon Session: Contemporary Security Challenges and the Bletchley Legacy: is Britain a ‘Surveillance Society’?

 

1400 – 1630 Panel Two (Chair Simon Greenish)

 

1400 – 1430  Dr Julian Richards (The University of Buckingham) ‘Are we a “surveillance society” some thoughts on Intercept Modernisation’ (accepted)

 

1430 – 1500  Prof Kenneth Ryan (California State University at Fresno) ‘President Obama and Intelligence Sharing Issues’ (accepted)

 

1500 – 1630 Questions and Discussion Panel Two, with Expert Input (experts accepted)

 

1630 – Brief Tour of Bletchley Park

Is Britain's parliamentary crisis a threat to our security?

Britain's parliamentary crisis threatens our security for two main reasons.

First, our entire security architecture is built on the fact that we are a mature parliamentary democracy whose power and authority is derived from those who are elected by us to make the laws by which we conduct ourselves. If those who make our laws cannot tell the difference between right and wrong, they undermine our system from within. MI5, famously, keeps away from what MPs do (as long as there is no terrorist threat involved). Maybe this wasn't as helpful as it thought. The misconduct of some MPs and Peers has clearly been going on for several years. MI5 should have been alert to this, if only because of the danger of blackmail that it posed (particularly strong where MPs become Ministers, and critical when they become Ministers is areas of security concern). If Parliament cannot function in the right way, then our system collapses (many would say it is already beginning to show signs of doing this). If our system fails, or if our MPs are widely discredited, it is only the enemies of parliamentary democracy who are the winners. The political history of Europe in the 20th century provides many examples of how the extreme right and left gained from the discrediting of parliamentary democracy.

If the governance of the UK has not broken down entirely this is partly due to the fact that so much of what makes this country work is now decided in Brussels. For some this has helped cause the problem on the grounds that there is actually not enough real work for MPs to do. For others it's good news that at least something is working somewhere.

The second reason this crisis threatens our security is because our security architecture properly relies on its total lawfulness. What is lawful and proper is defined by MPs (and Peers) and is a matter of their judgement. If their judgement is seen as flawed and faulty, as is plainly the case over Parliamentary allowances and expenses, then the laws they make are also likely to be seen as flawed and faulty. This will make it harder to combat extremism and terrorism and also harder to confront radicalisation. Certain Ministers have plainly got to step aside because of this.

In earlier decades, we could rely on an alert Security Service to warn political leaders when there was serious misconduct afoot. This was frequenty done by approaches from MI5 to the Whips. Today's Security Service will not have known about how the allowances system could be abused because they would have kept well away from the Palace of Westminister. Yet those making sure MI5 was not welcome there may have had their own motives for doing so.

In short, the crisis in which the UK now finds itself affects our security in a macro sense -- because what every decent citizen wants is a secure liberal democracy that allows our conflicts and problems to be solved in a rational, well-judged manner, avoiding crisis and meltdown. It also involves our security in a micro sense because it shows that so many MPs and Peers either have poor judgement or have acted disgracefully and even criminally.

It's true that the problems stemmed from a system of 'allowances' rather than 'expenses' - The Daily Telegraph which deserves great credit for exposing the wrongdoing has not always made the distinction as clear as it should be. That said Parliament's own rules do not make this clear: they refer to 'expenses' but not to allowances. What's more, those rules state specifically: 'such expenses should never be regarded as a substitute for pay'. Too many MPs were plainly using their 'allowances' to feather their own nests even going so far as to engage in property speculation, not to mention failing to pay capital gains tax.

The allowances granted had to be 'wholly, necessarily and exclusively' for carrying out MPs' 'parliamentary purposes'. It's hard to get clearer than that -- the list of abuses is now so well known it needs no listing here.

These are truly serious times -- for MPs and Peers certainly. But most of all for the Westminister system and the Mother of all Parliaments. Ensuring our system is secure from those who undermine it whether from without or within must now be our first priority.

Saturday, 9 May 2009

Pakistan fighting for survival?

Pakistani Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani has said that his country is "fighting for its survival" in the conflict with the fundamentalist Taliban elements in the northern Swat Valley. The crisis is starting to reach highly alarming proportions, with 15,000 troops deployed, and the UN estimating that up to half a million refugees have either fled the region or are attempting to do so. A major humanitarian disaster could be in the offing, in a country that is poorly placed to cope with such numbers of displaced persons. Strategically, the implications of an ungovernable northern part of the country could spill across a wider region and lead to an effective fissure in the state of Pakistan between a secular south, and a fundamentalist Islamist north. In the latter, lacking state authority in place of local chiefs with a radical Salafist worldview could be just the place in which that the likes of Al Qaeda could regroup and plan the next phase in their conflict with the West.

So is the PM right to warn that his country could be on the verge of a break-up, with all the regional strategic implications entailed? Maybe things have not quite reached that pass yet, and his statement is probably partly meant to raise awareness of the seriousness of the situation internationally and ensure that key partners - particularly in the West - do not take their eye off the ball in the face of other regional preoccupations such as Iran, Somalia, Zimbabwe or Sri Lanka. But PM Gilani's warnings are not without some basis, and a split in the state of Pakistan - if only a temporary one - is not inconceivable in the future. We could be entering a highly dangerous period in South Asia's history which could have much wider implications that just the mountainous Swat Valley.